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What if Govt did not kill General Ogolla and Kenya is headed into a military coup?


What if Govt did not kill General Ogolla and Kenya is headed into a military coup?


Catchy headline I know, but if there is something that Covid taught us it’s not to accept the common consensus when it comes to big issues and stories. We should consider alternatives, however uncomfortable they are, because that is where the truth might be lurking.


The general consensus currently around General Ogolla’s death is that the Government might have had something to do with it, to what ends and reason nobody seems to know.


However the contrarian opinion is that we might just be at the precipice of a conflict of magnitude propositions like we have not experienced in Kenya.

I don’t want to be a prophet of doom, but this piece seeks to do what we do best i.e. take no prisoners on the court of thoughts.


My Concerns are heavily based on the Book “The Prince” by Niccolo Machiavelli. Who is arguably one of the most eclectic if not among the best political scientist.


It is rumored that the late President Moi was a fan and his ideologies, which shaped how he did politics consequently shaping how politics is done in Kenya today.

Granted that most of our politicians and heads of government are still from the Nyayo error it’s not farfetched to explore how Machiavelli’s work influences our politics today.


You could rightly argue that Machiavellianism might be outdated given we now have access to information and technology but you can’t deny some fundamentals he put across.


Machiavelli states that there are 3 ways that someone can rise to power or get power;

1. A prince – Your dad was king / president and he left you the throne / seat.

2. A military coup.

3. Civilians give you power – You become King / president via an election or appointment.


Let us start with the prince.

In Kenya we have a couple of princes and even a living president i.e. Uhuru Kenyatta, his children automatically become princes and princesses, Jimmy Kibaki – Like it or not though he is nowhere to be seen, and Gideon Moi.


Raila Odinga is what we would call a quasi-prince given his father’s influence during Mzee Jomo Kenyatta’s error, but he has managed to cultivate a niche as the unopposed opposition leader in Kenya.


You might remember President Moi choosing Uhuru Kenyatta in the 2002 elections, which was a way of setting him up to take the helms of power when the time was right. You must admire Moi’s ability to see well over 20 years into the future.


It’s very difficult to rule in a country where there are princes and dynasty’s because they believe that they own the throne and also people just love their princes.

They take them to be God given, remember when one day Uhuru Kenyatta prayed and it rained, people took that as a sign from God and his presidency was pretty much guaranteed from then henceforth.


I should note that princes have an easy time ruling because people love them and only another prince or a military coup can get them out of power, which is rather rare because they know how to appease Generals and their fellow princes by maintaining the status quo.


A Military Coup

The best example of this is our neighboring county Uganda, where the current president took office via a coup and has remained in power ever since.


This is the most difficult way to get power because you have to put your life on the line and risk overthrowing the current regime, after which you have to subjugate people to your power and will, however should you manage to do all this, it is the most guaranteed way to remain in power because for someone to usurp the throne from you they have to go the military route.


Which brings me to the title of our newsletter today, maybe the good general was too good and could not allow the powers that be to force a coup d’état making him a stumbling block to anyone who wants to use this route to become the leader of Kenya.


So the best thing to do is to take him out, like everyone points out on Twitter/X and other social media platforms, Generals don’t just die and planes don’t just fall out of the sky.


Should this be the case, My God as a country that has known peace for this long and has never has something like this happen, we are so unprepared and the way people are opinionated in Kenya, wueeeh it does not look good at all. Only the Prayers of Righteous people can avail much at this point.


I hope and pray that we are not on the precepts of a coup because as a country we are super divided and polarized against tribal lines that the death and destruction that will follow is unfathomable. If there has ever been a time to call for peace and pray for Kenya, ni sasa na kama sio sasa ni sasa hivi.


Whisper a prayer for Kenya even though you are not religious, God knows that we need it.


Civilians give you power – You become King / president via an election or appointment.

The final way of being a ruler is by the will of the people via an election or an appointment. This is the second easiest way of getting power after being a prince. Combine being a prince and an election and you have a winner e.g. Uhuru Kenyatta.


Unfortunately this is also the most difficult way to maintain and keep power because if you get into power via this method, either the military or the princes will do their best to take you out and take power for themselves.


Hii sio story ya Jaba, let me give you real examples that have happened in Kenya.


After the late Mzee Jomo Kenyatta died in 22nd August 1978 the late President Moi became the president by appointment i.e. He was the vice president and managed to avoid an election hence was sworn in as the 2nd president of Kenya on 14th October 1978, however on 1stAugust 1982 the Kenya Air force attempted a coup d’état to remove president Moi out of power.


It is important to note for no reason at all, that our good late General Ogolla was from the Kenya Air force wing of the military, just an important foot note wink wink.


Fast forward to the year 2007 / 8 general election President Mwai kibaki is president and is running for his second term, what happens? The opposition declare a mistrial and force the his hand into a power sharing Nusu Mkate deal, in this case the princes had come to collect what they believed was rightfully theirs.


The events of this period in my opinion are the worst thing that ever happened to our country after the 1992 post elections violence, yes this was also a terrible one for our country.


What is my point in all this? Very simple President Ruto came into power via civilians and from our history and Machiavelli’s book when this happens the Princes and the military come to collect what they believe is rightfully theirs.


I hope that I have put up a strong defense and case to be analyzed in your court of thoughts, however difficult or crazy it might seem.


I will finish by saying, Kenya is not a democracy we are a constitutional republic that uses a democratic process to get leaders. We should not allow and entertain anyone who tries to get into power by another means, be it a prince or military personnel, no matter what sweet nothings they tell us, ooh sijui Ruto ni mbaya, Ruto must go and any other nonsense.


We have seen what is happening in Sudan and other African countries. In Kenya the only way to the throne is by the Ballot and that is our sacred cow that we shall not allow to be slaughtered on an altar of someone rising to power via unconstitutional means.


Whoever is on the president’s seat must finish their 5 year term then we are back to the ballot. This is a tried, tested and proven way to avoid bloodshed, it is not perfect, but for now it works until we get a better system like Vietnam and Singapore.


Till we meet again on these streets, be safe, pray for our Kenya, be a great citizen and do not take any prisoners in the court of thoughts.

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